Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Macy’s Inc. and Gap Inc. slashed earnings forecasts after the worst holiday-shopping season in 40 years... bloomberg.com
(WMT has been the LastManStanding in retail. I'm considering shorting it, now that it has gapped down below its 50dma)
Corporate earnings are about a quarter through a forecast 50 percent tumble from their peak, Citigroup strategists led by Robert Buckland wrote in a 2009 global outlook report, dated Jan. 7. Profits will drop sharply, reflecting the “collapse” in demand from the fourth quarter of last year, they said. “To be able to call a meaningful turn in global equities we need to be closer to the bottom in the corporate earnings cycle,” the strategists wrote. “On our forecasts that is more likely to happen in 2010. We suspect 2009 may be a trading range year. So don’t sell after a 30 percent fall and don’t buy after a 30 percent rally.” bloomberg.com
(If mid-2009 is the trough for the economy, then November 2008 probably was the trough for stocks. If corporate profits, margins, and inventories continue to deteriorate into 2010, stocks haven't troughed yet. Currently, I'm guessing 50% odds for each of those scenarios.)
The president-elect has packed his Cabinet and advisory ranks with clean energy fans. Further, he intends to seek legislation that will favor green business and, in his words, "make dirty energy expensive." seekingalpha.com
(Just listened to Obama's speech. As he and his cabinet does regularly, he advocated energy infrastructure spending, specifically: solar, wind, efficiency, smart grids. They never include nuclear, clean coal, ANWR, or oil sands, when they advocate Energy Independence. His speeches on this subject could have been written by GreenPeace. I'm considering buying FAN, the wind ETF.)
China has bought more than $1 trillion of American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home, a move that could have painful effects for American borrowers...In the last five years, China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output buying foreign debt, mostly American. In September, it surpassed Japan as the largest overseas holder of Treasuries...A senior central bank official, Cai Qiusheng, mentioned just before Christmas that China’s $1.9 trillion foreign exchange reserves had actually begun to shrink. nytimes.com
If Democrats enact a stimulus program of $1 trillion over two years, which is possible, the deficit this year (2009) could widen to about $1.7 trillion or more than 10 percent of gross domestic product...obliterating the previous postwar record of 6 percent, reached in 1983... nytimes.com |
