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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 302.84+2.0%Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42563)1/8/2009 5:31:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 95515
 
Outstanding post Jacob. Thanks for doing all the research and posting it.

I really like the following from your post in terms of trading the market going forward.

<<On our forecasts that is more likely to happen in 2010. We suspect 2009 may be a trading range year. So don’t sell after a 30 percent fall and don’t buy after a 30 percent rally.” bloomberg.com
(If mid-2009 is the trough for the economy, then November 2008 probably was the trough for stocks. If corporate profits, margins, and inventories continue to deteriorate into 2010, stocks haven't troughed yet. Currently, I'm guessing 50% odds for each of those scenarios.>>


I am with you on the 50 percent odds. Many people are jumping into the market right now thinking 2H09 is going to show an improved earnings environment. We shall see, but I am thinking it is pretty dicey at the moment. We need more info which will be provided as we go through the 1st quarter of 09.

Thanks again, Don
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