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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (92482)1/11/2009 2:05:56 AM
From: XBrit1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Thanks for the historical perspective, it's interesting.

For right now:

Hussman's metric of PE based on peak earnings (see Swenlin below for an up-to-date chart) does indicate that stocks are now fairly valued, although not historically cheap.

decisionpoint.com
(2nd chart down)

But that's the only non-bullsh*t indicator I've seen so far that allows that conclusion to be drawn. And it's based on "peak earnings" that resulted from the highest corporate profit margins in decades. So I'd contend that the past 5 years deserve an asterisk on the chart.

I'd want to see multiple non-bullsh*t measures saying things are cheap before I'd consider leaving my treasuries. Some of Jim Stack's stuff for example, especially his Coppock indicator and his bearish-pressure/bullish-vacuum indicators.
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