Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (92533)	1/12/2009 2:08:43 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Henry Blodget has a piece this morning, channeling Shiller about the 10-yr-averaged PE's being at fair value finally. clusterstock.alleyinsider.com Blodget's commentary is about the same as yours was: "So does that mean stocks are going to go straight up from here? Absolutely not. As the last 17 years have shown, the gravitational pull around fair value over the short-term is weak. After past market peaks of this magnitude, prices have usually spent decades below fair value, and we expect we'll likely see the same pattern here. As the accompanying chart shows, however, over the long haul, the reversion around the mean is powerful. And it suggests that, over the next couple of decades, the S&P 500 will deliver an average long-term return (6%-7% real)."

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