The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: XBrit who wrote (177102)	1/14/2009 7:01:33 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) of 306849

It's wildly inaccurate. See a zillion posts on CR's blog. The current number is about 11-12 months of inventory, and it's not stopped increasing yet. There is a big wave of foreclosures coming up as the various state and lender moratoriums expire, and that will guarantee further worsening short term. You're right......its SD, OC and the Inland Empire in S. CA that are down to a 6.9 months supply, not the nation. Gary Shilling (in his pay-per-view letter, I'm trying it out) comments that housing inventory typically normalizes very slowly after busts like this, and until it gets down to 8 months it is not possible for housing prices to stop falling. His estimate is mid-2010 at the earliest. The problem with Shilling is he only looks at 20 markets........some of the worst hit in the country. But he's right, prices only start to stabilize at around an 8 month supply and even then, its nip and tuck.

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