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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers
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To: loantech who wrote (62884)1/15/2009 10:09:49 AM
From: Valuepro1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 78417
 
Gee, I didn't read the start closely enough to see that you did not write that essay. Sorry for the confusion.

I will also add that I read somewhere that Federal economic pump priming has never failed to lift the economy. It even did so twice during the depression, but those efforts didn't last long because 1) the Fed started late, 2) did many of the wrong things, and (3 international trade was hindered by restrictive tariffs.

I can't say with any authority that we will not enter a debilitating deflation, but the odds don't favor it.

In a somewhat related subject, steel prices overseas have been inching up, iron ore stockpiles in Asia are being worked off, and early signs for the new long term contracts on iron ore are looking better than most had earlier expected. The outside limit on lowered price expectation was 30 percent off from last year. Earlier it had been 40 percent. As the first round of talks have just started and conditions are improving, sellers are supposed to be willing to hold back, while the buyers are eager for early agreements. I think the settlement will be 20-25 percent off from last year. That will keep much of last year's price increase intact. A 20 percent roll back will still leave an increase of +40 percent over the price of two years ago.

The point is, the world is not coming undone. Things are better globally than they appear in North America, and there are signs of recovery in other regions of the world.

VP in AZ
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