Welcome to the White House, Mr. Obama
The honeymoon doesn't last long.
By KARL ROVE
The Wall Street Journal [Opinion]
On Tuesday, America can take pride in a special transfer of power as Barack Obama becomes the first African-American to be sworn in as president.
Shortly after the ceremony, the new president's aides will slip away to inspect the offices they now inhabit. They've put much of their lives on hold to take jobs that will last, for most, two or three years. Hours will be long, pressure unrelenting, decisions momentous, and families often neglected. Every American should respect their sacrifices.
What these aides will soon realize is that they aren't history, but passing through it. I learned that from an elderly man who told me "to honor the house" as he emptied my trash bin late my first day at work.
That is what an administration owes the country. But it is not all it owes. There is also the matter of governing. Team Obama is about to learn that it's easier to campaign than to govern.
In fact, they are already learning it. Last February, Congress passed a stimulus bill, adding $152 billion to the deficit. Mr. Obama called it "deficit spending" and criticized the "disdain for pay-as-you-go budgeting" in Washington. Now he forecasts trillion dollar deficits on his watch. Mr. Obama, the candidate, criticized the "careless and incompetent execution" of the Iraq war. But as president-elect, he decided to retain George W. Bush's defense secretary and put a Bush adviser in charge of the National Security Council.
More significantly, Team Obama is stumbling on its biggest priority -- an economic stimulus package. One stutter step came when Mr. Obama said he looked forward to signing a stimulus bill on Jan. 20 and then failed to lay out a proposal by mid-December so Congress could chew it over. That led House Appropriations Chairman David Obey to carp that "We've got to have some signals called by Obama . . . it's hard to negotiate" when Team Obama "hasn't decided what they want."
Mr. Obama also tripped himself up by sending advisers to Capitol Hill on Dec. 18 to say that he wanted a stimulus bill to cost between $670 billion and $770 billion, but that he would accept $850 billion. This invited Congress to roll him and spend more. Now he may see not only his number shredded but the elements of his package as well.
Mr. Obama can recover. But he has to avoid losing his footing again by allowing Congress to enact its wish list instead of policies that will help the economy. He seems to be mistaking what may be good ideas for economic stimulants. Ensuring "that within five years, all of America's medical records are computerized" is a fine idea, but the Bush administration already set that goal and developed standards and structure to make it happen. Mr. Obama will claim credit for it but it won't quickly create jobs.
And then there's Medicaid. Mr. Obama wants to give about $100 billion to help states expand the program. This will add $100 billion or more a year to the baseline of an entitlement everyone admits is out of control.
Many Obama proposals are spending marketed as stimulus. Much of his "middle-class tax cut" goes to people who have no federal income tax liability. It's really a $500 per worker annual tax credit. Is $20 a week ($40 for couples) in welfare stimulative?
Top Obama adviser David Axelrod's polling and focus groups may suggest that calling new spending "investment" instead of "infrastructure" wins support. But in the end, spending money on the same old junk will do little for the economy.
Obama is riding high and setting lofty expectations as well. This is evident in the ever increasing number of jobs he promises to save or create. On Nov. 22, it was 2.5 million. On Dec. 20, it was three million. Then it was 3.675 million. And finally this past weekend it was 4.1 million. Mr. Obama may be counting on the fact that it will be impossible to verify how many jobs he really "saved." But the claims seem unrealistic anyway.
Take the "green jobs" he promises. There are 6,856 people who work for companies that make solar cells in America and 2,150 people who work for the biggest wind equipment maker. Mr. Obama says he'll create 459,000 new "green energy" jobs like those. Can he really do that? A lot of people will be keeping score.
Mr. Obama says 244,000 of his new jobs will be in government. Will these new government employees disappear when the economy recovers? Or is Mr. Obama pushing the largest expansion of government since LBJ's Great Society?
For all the pride America can have next Tuesday, these issues are real and not going away. The inauguration is a moment of constitutional significance and important symbolism. Team Obama should enjoy it. As I can attest personally, it won't last long. By the next day, the realities of governing will intrude.
Mr. Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.
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