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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis With Charts
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From: MACD X1/16/2009 1:28:14 PM
   of 6865
 
Where are we on this decline, where is the bottom

stockcharts.com

Of course no one knows the answer to that question but there are projections and thoughts on the subject and for sure I have mine and they are shared on the chart above.

Only on this site will you hear of congestion centers and orphan candlesticks but I have been writing about them for some time and they are described in the heading of this site.

Two congestion centers is the long version and that is what is on the chart, in elliott terms it is going to be a wave five affair.

But unlike elliott an orphan candlestick often occurs and in the case of the chart above it is clear that there is an orphan candlestick.

From my experience with working with the orphan candlesticks the center of the downtrend should be in the exact center of the orphan candlestick and if this is the case it has already happened and the bottom should be in.

But what if the center of the decline is in between the two congestion centers? If this turns out to be the case we will get another decline and the bottom should be around 1100.

By looking at volume it appears from this chart that large capitulation type volume didnt appear on the last bottom so the jury is still out but my thought are that this large volume drop is required so I am leaning now on another decline coming. So we will see, but in any case for a long term investor the damage is mostly done and is too late to exit at this point in my opinion.
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