Hi Jacob,
I'll address the relevant battery issues here. We can discuss semi-equips and other issues by PM or on other threads.
There's a dichotomy in what you have said about batteries.
First you said:
Battery-only cars won't work, until:
1. a car can go 300 miles on a single charge, and
2. the battery can be recharged in 3 minutes.
This is at least 10 years in the future.
Then you said:
Evolution, not revolution, is the future of the global auto industry. The first generation of plug-in hybrids will only go 10 miles on battery-only power, and then the IC (internal combustion) engine will start up. That distance will slowly increase.
I think your second statement is more on the mark. The conditions you mention in your first statement may or may not be attained in 10 years. But even today's (or actually 10 year old) battery technology, as clunky as it is, works quite well for quite a few drivers, at least as a second family car, used strictly for in-town commuting to school, library, supermarket, friends, etc. We have had one such car, a Chrysler GEM, which uses sealed lead acid batteries, for over two years, and though it certainly has its limitations, we love it.
They say that 90% of car trips are 30 miles or less. This suggests that today's lithium ion battery technology is sufficient for the vast majority of such trips. I believe that most of the key safety issues have already been resolved by the industry and that the main issue now is simply the high fixed cost of starting a new high volume battery production facility. Other factors complicating the issue are uncertain demand for the first generation of plug-in hybrid vehicles.
The switch to electric cars from IC engine cars will in turn cause many other changes in how we think about, drive, and make cars. The GEM car that I drive locally, for example, is made mainly of plastic in order to save weight. The doors and windows which we zip on only in the winter [we live in CA] are made of canvas and vinyl respectively. It is certainly somewhat flimsy and I would not want, nor am I permitted by law, to drive it in zones marked for above 35 mph driving for safety reasons. Newer electric cars and PHEVs designed for ordinary highway use will be stronger, of course, and use much more aluminum than steel in order to cut down on weight. Other changes will be in energy-saving LED lighting and heating/cooling systems which typically consume lots of power.
I do not have any current battery investments either at present and thankfully sold my Toyota in the 120s. I agree that TM is the best car manufacturer today, but that does not necessarily mean that it will necessarily be the best means of profiting from a gradual transition to electric cars, although it will always be one of the safest bets in the auto industry. Other higher risk possibilities include AONE [A123], when and if it does eventually come public and SQM, for its lithium supplies.
Cheers,
Sam |
