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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done?
VTI 330.06+0.2%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: joefromspringfield who wrote (57)1/17/2009 3:24:08 PM
From: Honey_Bee  Read Replies (1) of 3605
 
Joe,

Here's another interesting excerpt from Bob Brinker's live appearance at the San Jose Cure-a-thon in 2005.

Brinker talked about his market-timing model and what's in it:

David Korn wrote all of the following:

Peter: Bob then discussed what he looks at in his stock market timing model. He looks at (1) Economic Cycles; (2) Monetary Policy; (3) Valuation; and, (4) Sentiment. Bob said with respect to Monetary Policy, the Fed doesn't want to "rock the boat" by raising rates too much for fear of homeowners being unable to make their monthly mortgage payments. Bob said there is currently no problem with the Valuation Indicator (EC: see above) and that Sentiment is exciting to watch, especially the 60-day moving average of the put-call ratio. Currently, that stands at 0.82 which is a bullish indicator.

EC: I updated all of the sentiment data that I believe Bob follows in his model. The 60-day put/call moving average is actually up to 0.84 which is better as far as Bob's timing model is concerned as it indicates even more fear then when Bob last checked it. I suspect he got the number of 0.82 based on last Monday's close which is when Bob conducts the weekly update of his timing model.

EC#2: Another of Bob's favorite sentiment data points is the Investor's Intelligence Survey."

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