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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42775)	1/17/2009 7:58:08 PM
From: Return to Sender	4 Recommendations of 95520

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (1/17/09) amateur-investor.net The major averages continued to pullback through the middle part of the week but then attempted to bounce Thursday and Friday into option expiration. The Dow broke just below a key support level at its 61.8% Retracement Level (brown line) calculated from the 11/21 low to the most recent high early on Thursday but then reversed to the upside through Friday. If the oversold bounce continues next week look for the next area of upside resistance either at its 38.2% Retracement Level near 8460 or at its 20 Day EMA (blue line) near 8755. Meanwhile the key support level to watch next week will be at 7995 which was the intra day low on Thursday. If the 7995 level were to be taken out then an eventual retest of the 11/21 low of 7450 (point A) may occur. The Nasdaq was able to hold support above its 61.8% Retracement level (brown line) this week and bounced from oversold conditions from Thursday into Friday. If the Nasdaq follows through to the upside next week look for possible resistance either at its 20 Day EMA (blue line) near 1552 or at its 50 Day EMA (green line) around 1593. Meanwhile the key support level to watch next week will be at its 61.8% Retracement level at 1440. As far as the S&P 500 it held support on Thursday right at its 61.8% Retracement Level (brown line) at 818 and then reversed to the upside from Thursday afternoon into Friday. If the S&P 500 continues its oversold rally next week look for resistance either at its 38.2% Retracement Level near 866 or at its 20 Day EMA (blue line) near 880. Meanwhile the key support level to watch will remain at its 61.8% Retracement Level around 818. If the S&P 500 were to drop below the 818 level then that could eventually lead to a retest of the 11/21 low at 741 (point B). Finally for those of you that follow Elliott Waves (I know some don't like them) there appears to be two camps out there right now with regards to what is evolving. The 1st camp suggests the low made on 11/21 was the completion of a 2nd "5" Wave pattern to the downside which is being followed by an "ABC" corrective rally that may last several more weeks and eventually take the S&P 500 potentially up to the 1000 level. If this is the case then the most recent pullback that began on January 6th is likely the "B" Wave down which will then be followed by the "C" Wave up similar to what occurred last Spring after the 5 Wave pattern completed itself. Meanwhile the other camp suggests the low on 11/21 was the completion of Wave 3 down which has been followed by a corrective 4th Wave up. Meanwhile the most recent pullback that began on January 6th is the beginning of the 5th Wave down which will eventually take the S&P 500 back below its low of 741 at some point in the coming weeks before a substantial "ABC" corrective rally takes place. At this point there is enough evidence to support either case so it will be interesting to see which camp ends up being right in the coming weeks.

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