Skeeter Bug said:
<<i suggest you listen to what people have to say, analyze it, think about it and then make your own call - and live with the results.>>
--Skeeter, I DO listen to what people have to say. I listen to a wide range of opinion, not just the doom and gloomers.
One very important thing I have
learned is that even the most brilliant economic minds disagree violently on many points. And ALL of them are OFTEN wrong.
It is very difficult for people like you and me to know what's going to happen. The people who think they "know," like the internet maniacs, are the ones who get killed.
I know enough to know I don't know very much, which has kept me conservative and widely diversified and, so far, solvent.
I did push my luck a little in the mid-90s, and I won my gamble, and was therefore able to retire at the relatively early age of 61. But all the time the profits were rolling up, I was among the few (it seemed) who knew it was going to end badly.
I did not want to lose everything back in a huge bear market. That was why I was hoping Brinker could help me see it coming. But I certainly wasn't counting exclusively on HIM! In fact, I had a very large percentage of my money in value funds (even though he was a growth/tech guy), and I didn't worry that I was underperforming the tech nuts.
I felt those funds made more sense, and were safer.
I also started cutting back on stocks in 1999--before Brinker ever issued his sell signal. When Brinker said "sell," I sold some more, and then when he said in late summer that those who failed to sell now had a second chance, I sold some more.
When he recommended the QQQs, I put about 5% of my portfolio into them. To this day, I cannot understand the mentality of those who supposedly went the full 50% of cash reserves.
Since the market top in 2007, I have lost about 25% of my portfolio, but I still have more money than I had the day I retired.
So, I'm not nearly as reckless as you may think. I am very well aware of all the dangers your doom-and-gloomers are preaching about, and for all I know, they may be right. I'm not sure what to do about it, but I'm thinking about buying some gold and other precious metals stocks. Not sure how much that would help, and they could also crash in a recession/depression.
If you want to read someone who seems to be on top of things, but is not a doom and gloomer, you might check out www.hussmanfunds.com.
Dr. John Hussman writes a weekly article about his thoughts on the economy and market. His mutual funds are very risk averse, but much more so when he thinks the market is overvalued--as he has believed from late 2003 until just recently. There are a lot of interesting articles on the site.
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