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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (42246)1/18/2009 1:16:13 PM
From: octavian  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Skeeter Bug said:

<<it sounds like you didn't dollar cost average into the bubble - that was either smart (you did a valuation analysis and didn't like the risk compared to the reward) or lucky (you retired at the right time and didn't have new investment capital.>>

--Well, I DID dollar-cost-average into the 1995-99 bubble, big time. But I recognized that it was a gamble. It was a gamble that I had to take if I wanted to retire at a decent age. Obviously I got a little lucky and made my move at just the right time. But, unlike the "new era" crowd, I always knew I was riding a bubble that would burst. I just hoped to get into a conservative position BEFORE that happened. I was like Brinker: I had no intention of riding out a bear if I could help it.

<<don't worry about me, though. one of these days i'm going to love stocks and everyone's going to call me an "optimist." ;-)

valuation (risk vs reward) is everything.>>

--That's true. Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Reasonable valuations are not a guarantee against big drops. High valuations are not a guarantee stocks won't go MUCH higher.

I really think you would like Hussman. But you don't give any indication you're interested, so I won't mention him to you again.
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