skeeter bug said:
<<i must've missed it the last time you brought up hussman. i'll google him and see what he's about.>>
--I gave you the web address in the last post: it's www.hussmanfunds.com Let us know what you think after you have investigated the site.
<<do be careful *right now*, though. make no mistake, we are on the edge of the fiscal abyss with $500,000,000,000,000+ in derivatives, much of which is unfunded, that could not only bring down our financial system to its knees, which is what we've seen today (hence the $8.5 trillion in govt obligations to try and lift it back to its fee), but it could chop of its legs and then dice its body into miniscule pieces.
the author of "the ascent of money" was on GPS with Fareed (CNN) and he said a good scenario would be similar to japan's lost decade that started around 1990.>>
--Well, I *am* going to be careful--especially since I am at the point in my life where capital preservation is FAR more important than any potential gains.
Your fears could turn out to be right. I don't claim to know. I DO think you're concentrating your reading among some pretty negative people. Not every smart person agrees with your people. Hussman is one of many people I greatly respect who doesn't see armageddon or even a depression on the horizon. Yet he has been bearish for some time because of valuations, and has warned against financials for a couple years. He also warned people to get out of commodities just before the crash began.
<<look at a nikkei chart over the last 25 years. when the market collapses 90% over a 20 year period, i'm guessing lots of japanese retired folks had to re-enter the work force.>>
--I am very well aware of the nikkei chart. I was also aware of it in the mid-to-late 1990s, when kirk and his cronies were touting "early innings" in the tech craze.
<<... the S&P may well under perform inflation over an extended period of time.>>
--Right. And it may outperform too. -:) The key word in both sentences is 'may.'
<<the dollar cost averagers and buy and holders are currently be taken out back oand shot. i have no issue with someone who does some kind of valuation and buys knowing that one day they plan to sell at some future point based upon fundamentals - good or bad.>>
--Right. I never believed in straight 'buy and hold.' That is one thing that attracted me to Brinker in the first place. Most 'experts' in the 90s were touting buy-and-hold. He was one of the few who was saying he had no intention of doing that through a bear, if he could avoid it. For some reason, some of brinker's followers seem to have assumed there was some sort of "guarantee" on Bob's market forecasts. I was never under that illusion.
<<oh, and i bet brinker's net investment return is negative since 1995. that's a long time.>>
--Do you mean his personal return? If that is what you mean, I doubt it. He's a pretty smart guy, despite what the bashers try to tell us. He knows how old he is, and I'm sure he has a good chunk of his portfolio in municipal bonds, GNMAs and other safe investments.
BTW, just try to ignore that kirk character who keeps popping in here, insulting people. I think he sees that a "basher" and non-basher are having a polite conversation, and it has made him even more grumpy than usual. -:) |
