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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.84

+2.0%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42797)	1/18/2009 8:31:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 95515

Well, certainly that is possible and not out of line with the past 03/04 scenario. <<2009 will see the SOX doubling, if 2010 bookings reach 2004 levels. Is that likely?>> One way of looking at 03 is to say that instead of the market looking forward for 6 mos as most people figure, in this case when the market took off in Jan 03 it was looking forward 12 months to 04. We could have the same situation here, ie, all of 09 is bad for Bookings and Billings, but the market is ready to look forward to 2010 already in Jan of 09, a full 12 months out. Most analysts expect a very bad this year in terms of capital expenditures. Companies can hold back spending for cap ex for a year, but when they do, the pressure builds for these companies to "catch up" in the future. 03/04 looks good for that type of scenario. As we all know however, nothing is for sure when we look into the future. Don

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