The interesting thing about exponentiality is that its hockey stick rise is currently taking place [or beginning to take place, this is not an exact science] on a number of fronts at roughly about the same time. Emphasis on roughly.
Oil, check.
Debt, check.
Currencies, check.
Population, check.
Derivatives, check.
I get goose bumps when I think about exponentiality of debt which is coupled to leverage.
During Wiemar Germany and late 1700s France, exponentiality was not a huge problem because it was confined to discrete countries. Plus, commodities and raw materials were not quite as limited or about to be as limited as is the case now.
What we have now, especially in energy markets, is price exponentiality about to hit globally as a result of scarcity.
Goldman Sachs today issued a report predicting a swift and violent rise in the price of oil in the second half of '09. As Jay might say: ye-up.
The confluence of the hockey stick rise in so many things [population, cash, debt, etc.] at a time when cheap energy, the end all and be all of prosperity and growth, is peaking, is going to cause an incredible global dislocation for which everyone needs to prepare.
The answer is simple: invest in things which are by definition non-exponential, i.e., farmland [boy, is that ever a neglected field], oil, gold, food, real estate in secure and beautiful places, etc., or, if exponential, scalable into useful things such as solar energy, wind energy, desalinization, etc.
Everything is going to get smaller, more efficient, less consumptive of resources, debt-free, environmentally friendly, etc., but it is going to take a real nasty turn of events before it does. The present global system cannot endure in its present form. |
