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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 382.95-0.8%4:00 PM EST
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To: carranza2 who wrote (45484)1/20/2009 4:31:34 AM
From: Maurice Winn3 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 217740
 
C2, Goldman Sachs couldn't predict the financial mess and their ex boss was unsuccessful in response, so their predictions on oil are unlikely to be any better.

That's like asking doctors who can't predict medical outcomes or diagnose medical conditions to pontificate on how to produce cars and energy to move them.

<What we have now, especially in energy markets, is price exponentiality about to hit globally as a result of scarcity.

Goldman Sachs today issued a report predicting a swift and violent rise in the price of oil in the second half of '09. As Jay might say: ye-up. >

Exponential functions can be very gradual, taking thousands of years, so price "exponentiality" is meaningless. It is just a scary sounding mathematical word which must be scientific coz it seems so brainy.

Also, there is NO shortage of energy. The cosmos is made of the stuff. Take a look at the sky - that dirty great huge ball of fire is a stupendously huge fusion/fission atomic bomb going off. If oil gets a bit too expensive, people will do something else.

Don't be conned by flim-flam artists. In 2008 US$, oil can't get to $200 a barrel other than in an ephemeral burp as markets clear to something else. We saw how quickly people reacted just at $140 a barrel. Make it $200 a barrel and they'll react faster still.

You'd think Wayoman would have noticed such wayoism.

Exponential functions here: en.wikipedia.org Note that "derivatives" there are not the same as derivatives in financial relativity theory.

Mqurice
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