January 21, 2009, 11:24 am
Semi Cap Equipment: RBC Cuts Ests On AMAT, NVLS, KLAC; Sees 45% Drop In Spending In 2009
Posted by Eric Savitz
How low can the chip companies cut spending?
Pretty darn low, apparently.
RBC Capital’s Maheash Sanganeria this morning chopped his estimates on Applied Materials (AMAT), Novellus (NVLS) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) to reflect his new forecast for a 45% drop in chip industry capital spending in 2009. He says orders, shipments and revenues in the first quarter alone are likely to be down 25% with Intel (INTC) the only significant customer.
Sanganeria adds that the bulls view that there is a minimum required level of maintainence spending for the industry is “a misleading concept,” and that there is “virtually no lower limit” on semiconductor cap ex. He says about 80% of the $8 billion to $9 billion he expects the industry to spend on wafer fab cap ex this year will be for capacity additions at companies like Intel, Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
Here are his estimate cuts:
Applied Materials: For the October 2009 fiscal year, he cuts his revenue forecast to $5.378 billion, from $5.945 billion. The new estimate would be down 34% from the FY 2008 revenues of $8.129 billion. He now sees EPS for the year of 5 cents, down from 22 cents.
KLA-Tencor: For the June 2009 fiscal year, he cuts his revenue forecast to $1.451 billion, from $1.693 billion; the new estimate would be down 42% from FY 2008’s $2.522 billion. EPS drops to a loss of 39 cents, from a profit of 30 cents.
Novellus: For 2009, his revenue estimate drops to $590.9 million from $648.3 million; the new forecast would be down 42% from last year’s estimated $1.013 billion. He now sees a loss for the year of $1.09 a share; previously, he was looking for a loss of 79 cents. |
