Hogman,
I recognize all that you are saying. During the same period, I've known other small companies that have gone under completely (and taken my shares with them). Still, on a split-adjusted basis HSTX has gone from about $196/sh in March 2000 to about $6/sh today... so anyone who bought near the top and held is certainly hurting... we may never get back to such lofty share prices. What can I say, although I recently bought some more shares at $3.90/sh, my current average cost per share is well above $6... so I'm sitting on a paper loss too. Some of the reasons that I like HSTX include
(a) Good Management. Well, I think the gang that took over upon the merger with Harris was pretty bad and the pre-merger gang at STXN was only mediocre (with the exception of Carl Thompsen, who was a great CFO) but Chuck Kissner was great before that... and continues to serve on the board even today. Mr Braun is very refreshing and I think he is doing a fine job so far, but we'll know for sure in another year. It must be remembered what you can reasonably expect from management... they do not create market conditions for the company, they help the company to exploit (or to weather) market conditions. When the whole market is in the crapper (as it was, say, during the Asian crisis some years ago) you expect management to take prompt action to mitigate the damage... its just stupid to blame them for market conditions over which they have no control... and you expect them to position the company to take advantage of improving market conditions when the crisis finally ends.
(b) Pure Play. HSTX has some big competitors in the market for wireless communication equipment... but for them this is only one segment of a larger market (e.g., Lucent, Nortel, Nokia, Alcatel, Siemens). I like the fact that this is the ONLY market for HSTX. As far as I can see, if you want to play the market for wireless communication equipment, HSTX is the only way to do it. Sure there are smaller pure plays... but they are much weaker (and are far more likely to expire or be acquired) than HSTX. If you buy the bigger companies that compete in this market segment, you are playing all the other markets they are in too.
Before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the market for wireless communication equipment (like many others) was booming and our share price reflected that. Since then, this market has been rocky at best. But the company has persevered and continues to develop/sell some of the best equipment available. They are always striving to produce a better "value proposition" for their customers and they usually succeed.
One thing I'd like to see is a higher gross margin. This company cannot compete for long on price and must continually innovate. They do this pretty well, but such innovation should also produce better margins.
Maybe what I'm saying is that, as a company, I think HSTX is great. Whether this makes a great long-term investment should depend on your outlook for the prospects of the market they are in. As I said above, its been a rocky market (at best) these past few years... and I'm honestly a bit confused in trying to understand what the current global credit/economic crisis will mean for this market (and for HSTX). But I do know this current crisis will end, I firmly believe that HSTX will survive, and I feel that Mr. Braun will steer the company well through these turbulent waters. Longer term, I think the market for wireless communication equipment (particularly the sub-segment for IP-based equipment) is pretty darned good... much better than for the broader market for communication equipment in general.
Well, you may not agree. I'm glad for you that you cut your shares years ago and didn't suffer through the long years of declining share price. But now that we're so far down, do you really believe we're heading a lot lower? I do not. Maybe you'll think about joining us for that eventual ride up? Here are some recent remarks (not mine) that I've stolen from the yahoo message board...
=======
This just in from MarketEdge, as of 1/16/09
Recommendation
Stock is a Buy.
Comment
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.
The 200 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.
Look for Support at 6.43
=======
HSTX has broken through it's 10 day moving average, it's 50 day moving
avergae and also is now outside & above the Bolliger Bands...next up, the
200 dma ? ....which stands at 8.00 , btw
=======
Cheers! |
