Wow, what a quarter! and what an outlook for the next year. These guys ooze knowhow and confidence.
While I have nothing to add re the outstanding achievements made by CYMI, I do have some WAGs re the Analysts' reactions on the conference call.
1. Analysts tend to have egos about 3 times the size of the known universe. Ok, maybe much larger than that.
2. MS and Montgomery analysts were just plain wrong in their downgrades. They took known facts, jumped to some completely incorrect conclusions and caused huge amounts of money to be lost by their clients. CYMI is small potatoes - a nit. It's the rest of the chip equipment companies where the big $ were pulled out of - ar too prematurely.
3. They didn't believe that the DRAM makers were going to move to DUV. Even today, the pundits were saying that Far East currency crisis is hitting everybody including the chip equipment companies.
The Lam Research and CYMI calls proved that the only hope these DRAM makers have of becoming profitable is to move up their DUV plans.
The analysts had concluded that DUV was being delayed. They realized today they were flat out wrong. Even with their egos, they could no longer shut out reality.
I believe that is a major contributor to their rather glum tones during the conference call. They now have to swallow their pride and reverse themselves again. For Brett Hodess that'll be the 3RD reversal in less than 2 months. Not very bright are you, Brett? (Just kidding - You could probably outshine a 10 watt bulb as long as it wasn't plugged in)
The alternative is to let their clients lose even more money. ... and risk losing their clients.
They really have nothing to gain by keeping CYMI at a HOLD. unless of course, Brett takes offense to some of my comments.
So I would guess, they'll start getting the word out to their most preferred customers, then the next tier, then ... . and 2 weeks later, we'll see the AMAT, KLAC, KLIC, PRIA,CYMI, etc. upgraded reports.
In short, they blew the call on the move to DUV as well as 0.25u. They know it. They've lost credibility. They have to eat a little crow or their company loses customers; and they lose a little of their power to move markets.
Just my humble opinion,
Any other WAGs out there,
Ian. |
