Skeets, I don't like SRS much, but there is no real alternative, especially for IRAs and 401Ks.
There is no limit on how high a short Treasury fund can go. If they were shorting the actual bonds, yes, there would be. They can only go to zero. But, shorting an index, that will always reflect the current bond's yields. Whatever we have to pay to borrow will be reflected in the glorious price action.
China is sucked in. If they sell Treasuries, the price will test that zero level. Which will impact their own net worth. Since their economy has lost a lot of its shine, that is a risk they are unlikely to take. Unless they could unload them all at once, and there aren't too many buyers with that kind of moolah.
My sell target is always when I think the blood in the street has maximized itself. I am usually early, as I was on the entry to TBT (and MU and just about everything else. It really wouldn't hurt my feelings if stuff went the right way immeidately after I put on my position. <G>) I suspect 14-16% long bond rates will do the trick for me. And I may reduce thirds at much lower yields, only to put them back on during occasional dead cat bounces. |
