Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done?

VTI 329.91

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Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (162)	1/25/2009 2:59:11 PM
From: octavian	Read Replies (1) of 3605

Skeeter Bug said: <<temporary is fine. ;-) i bought TBT and it promptly fell 16% in 2 weeks. i bought my 2nd third and now it is higher than when i originally purchased it. this is exactly why i buy in thirds.>> --What do you do if something you buy goes straight up, or goes up a little and then trades in a range for a long time? If it goes straight up, it seems to me you're stuck with 1/3 of a position even though you were 100% right. <<i see bubble and i'm going to sit back and wait for it to pop. doubling money supply every two years amidst a sharp fall in production will eventually lead to some serious inflation.>> --Not all experts agree with that. Many, if not most (it seems to me) believe that inflation is a threat but not a given. <<or if China relations go sour... and Obama is working on that with his claims China is manipulating their currency (true or not, you don't make your financial masters mad).>> --I suspect they were just putting out a feeler. I doubt if they will try to get tough with China--especially not now. <<the only concern i have is that this feels like taking candy from a baby - so the ease with which this ought to play out concerns me. it shouldn't be this easy, so i think i might be missing something.>> --Well, the internet nuts also thought it was easy! -:) So did the home flippers. In the late 90s, Jimmy Rogers was 100% certain we would "never see rates below 6% again in our lifetime" (so certain was he of inflation). Now YOU are certain of inflation. Hmmmmmmmm. <<or, perhaps, people are really that stupid... you know, like leveraging to buy liar loans at the top of a housing bubble.>> --Some people are definitely that stupid. I don't think the "markets" are that stupid.

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