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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done?
VTI 342.48+0.6%Feb 2 4:00 PM EST
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (214)1/27/2009 9:18:34 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) of 3605
 
I thought the term "basher" wasn't allowed here. Perhaps I was mistaken.

If not, than I apologize. It gets confusing remembering what forum I answer in. But since you started to keep score, I decided to try and post more here. 8^)

"Also, if he gives 10 year returns, should he list the returns adjusted for putting 4% into MSFT at his $23 or $24 buy level from 2003?"

Only if he also includes the original Microsoft buy in his twenty year returns.

When he said to buy MSFT in 2003, he had people in cash waiting for a buy signal. In the early years, you would have to sell something to buy MSFT using the standard of a fixed portfolio starting with some amount, $20,000 in Brinker's case. We'd also have to account for dead money in UTEK that would really hurt his good returns in the latter part of the 1990s while the MSFT was pegged at 4% then you have to add in his advice to buy TEFQX in Feb 2000 plus he recommended some funds in April 2000 that did really, really poorly. It is worth a look back at the April 2000 Marketimer to see these funds he recommended.

I think the whole exercise shows he is a machine that spits out ideas where the bad ones vanish while the good ones, though rare, like MSFT, live on forever via fawning callers getting on the show to praise him. It is next to impossible to track the overall returns of the ideas because they vanish as "hold until future recovery" and are never heard of again.

I often think some callers give phony praise because they want to get on the radio and know that works.
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