The Smartphone Game: Preliminary Sales and Share in 2008 ...
No 3rd party research agency has yet stepped forward with a scorecard of smartphone or OS sales distribution and share for 2008 so I've taken a preliminary cut at it using Nokia's quarterly supplied earnings statements in which they state their own global view of smartphone/converged device sales, and their own quarterly volumes of those upper mid-range and high end devices.
At the beginning of the year, analysts projected that the segment would grow 50% to 60% from the ~117 million units sold in 2007 to as much as 180 to 190 million units. The segment did outdistance other market segments in 2008 but Nokia's estimate of 161 million unit sell-in for the year appears to be on the high side at +38% growth and in actual terms their own sales were flat YoY due to intense increasing competition in the industry they pioneered (along with Palm and Microsoft). Smart-like feature phones with Touch UI and high res screens from Samsung and LG who were slow to enter the smartphone arena added to that competition, and while Samsung's now engaged both promise more in 2009.
Despite the competition Nokia held at least 38% total share for the year and perhaps higher but 2009 competition will be greater than that in 2008.
The tables I've constructed below utilize Nokia's quarterly estimates of sell-in, Gartner's of sell through, and Strategy Analytics total estimated 2008 sell-in.
I. Nokia's View of 2008 Global Converged Mobile Devices (Smartphone) Volumes
Smartphone Smartphone Share of
Units Share Handsets³
======== ===== ========
1. Nokia¹ 60.60m 37.6% 5.1%
2. RIM² 22.65m 14.1% 1.9%
3. Apple² 13.70m 8.5% 1.2%
Others 41.10m 30.0% 3.5%
------ ------ --------
161.0m¹ 100.0% 13.7%
·
¹ Based on Nokia's estimate of global sales and their reported salea.
² Based on RIM's and Apple's reported sales.
³ Based on 1178.1m total handset sell-in (Strategy Analytics)
2008 OEM Branded Vendors Global Smartphone Sales and Share (Nokia)
Units Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'07 ¦ CY2008 %
======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
1. Nokia¹ 14.60m 15.30m 15.50m 15.10m ¦ 60.60m 37.6%
2. RIM² 4.31m 5.59m 6.05m 6.70m ¦ 22.65m 14.1%
3. Apple² 1.73m .72m 6.89m 4.36m ¦ 13.70m 8.5%
Others 12.67m 15.49m 15.77m 21.84m ¦ 64.05m 39.8%
------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ ------ ------
33.30m 37.10m 44.20m 48.00m ¦ 161.0m¹ 100.0%
=================================================================
Gartner³ 32.25m 32.22m 36.52m NA TBD TBD
=================================================================
Share Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 ¦ CY2008 %
======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
1. Nokia 48.4% 41.2% 35.1% 31.5% ¦ 60.60m 37.6%
2. RIM 12.9% 15.1% 13.7% 14.0% ¦ 22.65m 14.1%
3. Apple 5.2% 1.9% 15.9% 9.1% ¦ 13.70m 8.5%
Others 38.0% 41.8% 35.7% 45.5% ¦ 64.05m 39.8%
------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ ------ ------
100.0% 37.10m 44.20m 48.00m ¦ 161.0m 100.0%
·
¹ Source: Nokia'svolumes from Nokia's quarterly earning statements
² Source: RIM's and Apple's volumes from their quarterly statements
³ Gartner Smartphone Sell Through in 2008: See expanded tables below
Nokia's Symbian/S60 Smartphone Quarterly Mix (approximate units by class)
Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'07 ¦ CY2008 %
======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
NSeries 9.9m 10.1m 8.9m 8.0m ¦ ~36.9m 61%
ESeries 1.9m 1.9m 3.0m 3.1m ¦ ~9.9m 16%
Generic¹ 2.8m 3.3m 3.6m 4.0m ¦ ~13.7m 23%
------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ -------- -----
Total 14.6m 15.3m 15.5m 15.1m ¦ 60.6m 100%
II. Gartner's View of 2008 Smartphone and OS Sell Through Sales and Share
Q1'08 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q3'08
Units Share Units Share Units Share Q4'08 CY2008
====== ===== ====== ===== ====== ===== ===== ======
Nokia 14.59m 45.2% 15.30m 47.5% 15.47m 42.4% TBD TBD
RIM 4.31m 3.4% 5.59m 17.4% 5.80m 15.9% TBD TBD
Apple 1.73m 5.3% ? ? 4.72m 12.9% TBD TBD
HTC¹ ? ? 1.33m 4.1% 1,66m 4.5% TBD TBD
Sharp 1.32m 4.1% 1.33m 4.1% 1,239 3.4% TBD TBD
Fujitsu 1.32m 4.1% 1.07m 3.3% ? ? TBD TBD
Others 8.98m 29.9% 7.60m 23.6% 7.63m 20.9% TBD TBD
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- ------
Total 32.25m 100.0% 32.22m 100.0% 36.52m 100.0% TBD 100.0%
·
¹ Note: Under the name HTC, Gartner counts only the company's own-branded
devices. The devices that HTC designs for mobile operators are not included.
2008 OEM Branded Vendors Sell Through by OS (Gartner)
Q1'08 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q3'08
Units Share Units Share Units Share Q4'08 CY2008
====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ===== ===== ======
Symbian 18.40m 57.1% 18.41m 57.1% 18.18m 49.8% TBD TBD
RIM BB 4.30m 13.4% 5.60m 17.4% 5.80m 15.9% TBD TBD
WinMob 3.86m 12.0% 3.87m 12.0% 4.05m 11.1% TBD TBD
OS X RISC 1.73m ? 0.89m 2.8% 4.72m 12.9% TBD TBD
Linux 2.90m 9.1% 2.36m 7.3% 2.62m 7.2% TBD TBD
Palm 0.66m 2.0% 0.74m 2.3% 0.78m 2.1% TBD TBD
Others 2.00m 6.5% 0.35m 1.1% 0.36m 1.0% TBD TBD
------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------- ----- ------
32.25m 100.0% 32.22m 100.0% 36.52m 100.0% TBD 100.0%
III. Nokia's and Gartner's Comparative Views of Sales and Share
A. Nokia's View of Sell-In to Channels
Q1'08 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q4'08 2008 2008
Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== =====
All 33.30m - 37.10m - 44.20m - 48.00m - 60.60m -
Nokia 14.60m 48.4% 15.30m 41.2% 15.50m 35.1% 15.10m 31.5% 60.60m 37.6%
B. Gartners's View of Sell Through to End Users
Q1'08 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q4'08 CYTD¹ CYTD¹
Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== =====
All 32.25m - 32.22m - 36.52m - TBD TBD 101.0m ---
Nokia 14.59m 45.2% 15.30m 47.5% 15.47m 42.4% TBD TBD 45.4m 45.0%
·
¹ CYTD Sales and Share is for the 3 initial reported quarters of 2008 and
Nokia ssll through as reported by Gartner, not Nokia reported sell-in
IV. Source References for Smartphone Data in the Tables Above
Smartphone Source Statements from Nokia's quarterly earning statements in 2008
• CY 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in 2008 increased to 161 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 117 million units in 2007. Our own converged mobile device volumes were 60.6 million units in 2008, compared with 60.5 million units in 2007. Nokia shipped over 36 million Nokia Nseries and approximately 10 million Nokia Eseries devices in 2008. [page 4 at link below]
• Q4 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in the fourth quarter 2008 increased to 48.0 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 40.1 million units in the fourth quarter 2007 and 44.2 million units in the third quarter 2008. Our own converged mobile device volumes were 15.1 million units in the fourth quarter 2008, compared with 18.8 million units in the fourth quarter 2007 and 15.5 million units in the third quarter 2008. We shipped approximately 8 million Nokia Nseries and over 3 million Nokia Eseries devices during the fourth quarter 2008. [page 4]
nokia.com
• Q3 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in the third quarter 2008 increased to 44.2 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 31.7 million units in the third quarter 2007. Our own converged mobile device volumes were 15.5 million units in the third quarter 2008, compared with 16.0 million units in the third quarter 2007. We shipped almost 9 million Nokia Nseries and 3 million Nokia Eseries devices during the third quarter 2008. [page 4]
media.corporate-ir.net
• Q2 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in the second quarter 2008 increased to 37.1 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 27.0 million units in the second quarter 2007. Our own converged mobile device volumes rose to 15.3 million units in the second quarter 2008, compared with 13.9 million units in the second quarter 2007. We shipped over 10 million Nokia Nseries and almost 2 million Nokia Eseries devices during the second quarter 2008. [page 4]
media.corporate-ir.net
• Q1 2008: Converged device industry volumes increased to an estimated 33.3 million units, compared with an estimated 23.5 million units in the first quarter 2007. Our own converged device volumes rose to 14.6 million units, compared with 11.8 million units in the first quarter 2007. We shipped close to 10 million Nokia Nseries and almost 2 million Nokia Eseries devices during the first quarter 2008. [page 3]
media.corporate-ir.net
Note 1: Source Statements for RIM's and Apple's smartphone volumes in my 'Nokia's View' tables are from Nokia's quarterly earnings statements and Barclays (formerly Lehman Brothers) quarterly updates of them. The source of 'Others' volume is extrapolated from Nokia's total view minus the sum of Nokia's + Rim's + Apple's reported unit sales.
Note 2: Nokia refers to smartphones as 'converged devices. I think that one of the reasons is that Microsoft and others lay trademarked claims to the term 'smartphone' (Microsoft's claim is serial number 78169887, registered in October 2002) just as Nokia has trademarked 'Communicator.' The first USA usage of smartphone was by Kyocera for their 2 Palm based products earlier in the decade. It is not clear to me whether or not when reporting their global view of converged devices, and their own smartphone shipments in their quarterly earnings reports, they include their Maemo Linux based NSeries Internet Tablets without Cellular capability, as well as Symbian/S60 devices. Regardless, at this time, that is a very modest quantity of devices, perhaps a million or so on an annual basis. For some time Nokia has also referred to its NSeries devices as mobile multimedia computers.
Gartner 2008 Source References for Smartphone Sell Through Sales and Share
• Q1 2008: gartner.com
---------> boards.fool.com
• Q2 2008: gartner.com
• Q3 2008: gartner.com
Significant Canalys 2007/2008 Smartphone References
Canalys is generally considered a very authoritative source for tracking smartphone sales and share data but unfortunately they do not publicly celebrate their 'Smart Mobile Device Analysis Services' subscription data consistently on a quarterly basis. These 2 2008 references are available however. ...
CY2007 and Q4'07: canalys.com
Q3 2008: tinyurl.com
In Q3 2008 Canalys reported smartphone sell-in of 39.55 million units. In the same quarter Nokia saw 44.2 million 'converged device' units shipped. That's a big differential. Like Gartner Canalys does not count white label smartphones built on an ODM to OEM basis for network operators (e.g. HTC non-branded smartphones). Nokia may count them, and that may somewhat account for the fact that their global total estimates are generally higher than Canalys, ABI, IDC, and other 3rd party research agencies, and their own share estimate is consequently lower.
There are, of course varying definitions of what constitutes a smartphone, smart device, or converged device. It's also possible that a fair amount of unsold inventory remained in channels beginning a quarter when sales will drop substantially. Apple alone reportedly had about 1.75 million unsold iPhone 3G units in channels at year end, down only 250,000 units from quarter ending September 31 when 2 million units were in inventory.
Strategy Analytics Q4'08 and CY 2008 Sell-in Sales and Share
• au.sys-con.com
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I look forward to updating these tables when 3rd parties report, and getting closer to realistic 2008 smartphone share values and their nuances.
- Eric - |
