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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD
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To: SwampDogg who wrote (143976)1/29/2009 2:03:06 AM
From: Hugh A  Read Replies (2) of 313200
 
SD - can you share your DD or TA on this?

I track:
1. [cpi-mcpi] - it's screaming buy gold,
2. [10 yr-1 Yr T-bill spread] - inflation not expected for at least 6 months
3. [10 Yr TIPS spread] - inflation not expected, but out of kilter due to flight to safety on the 10 Yr T-bill - could be a head-fake.

In real terms, when gold pops, PoG/cpi compared to 1980 says gold should be $1,600 to $1,800, but with cpi running ahead by this time and an overcorrection on the upside, gold could close over $3,000 for one day (and the Dow below 4,000).

Therefore, my prediction is this isn't the big pop - we've got to see evidence for expected inflation in Treasuries data before we get it.

Your thoughts?

HA
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