Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done?

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Honey_Bee who wrote (258)	1/29/2009 6:39:28 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 3605

For the record, about 20 years ago Brinker sold and went to 100% cash after riding down the 1987 bear market fully invested. He didn't sell into weakness as he waited for the market to rally, maybe 10%...(we are up about that much from the Nov. 2008 bottom...) I have the numbers on the "Asset Allocation History" on the Brinker Fan Club web site if you need to know. The market continued up so that hurt his returns until he became fully invested again in the early 1990s. In the late 1990s he was ambushed by a caller that got him to admit he missed the 1987 bear where he said he has added his "sentiment indicator" to his model which when backtested, would have had him do better (between 1987-1991.) He's been saying his sentiment indicator is very, very bullish for his model for many months so unless he changes his model, you would not expect him to issue a buy call unless he had a brain fart similar to his advice to buy QQQ in 2000 when it was in the $80s and ride it all the way down to the current $20s. The problem with Brinker's sentiment component... sometimes the Cassandras are right! 8^)

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