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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: tom pope who wrote (117239)	1/30/2009 2:32:18 PM
From: JimisJim	9 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 206150

Comparing the current oil price bust to the late '70s and '80s is a bit misleading... a few other things were going on back then... e.g., the switch to front-wheel drive cars on massive scale and the huge supply/production spare capacity... Not seeing game changing trend toward significantly more efficient vehicles... yet... and the only spare production capacity is the difference between the peak demand last year or so vs. 1.7%-4% drop in that demand (depending on whose data is used). It will not be 15 years before we see $100 oil again... The key phrase in your quote: "it is clear just from the data that something lead to a structural change in consumption..." And that structural change was the switch to FWD and/or much smaller/efficient foreign autos, which until then, were perceived as inferior to US autos by the US public... not so any more and I don't see anything coming down the pike that would make the same type of difference... at least not in the next 1-5 years or more. Jim

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