O.C. luxury-home sellers face 9-year supply
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The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo shows how slow O.C.’s luxury home market is …
It would take 9.72 years for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale listed at $4 million and above at the current sales pace. That compared to 6.61 years a year ago and 2.6 years two years ago.
In 2008, this $4+ million range posted its best expected market time in March at 1.5 years.
The current market time for $4+ million is 21 times longer than the same measure for all homes in the overall county.
Also, look at this slice vs. 2.2 years for all homes listed for more than $1 million.
Overall, it would take 5.39 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 5.62 months two weeks vs. 12.51 months a year ago vs. 6.16 two years ago.
By the way, Thomas calculates his “market time” benchmark by contrasting tracking how many homes are in the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings vs. the current pace of new, pending deals to purchase being made.
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The latest report contains fresh evidence that the high-end of the Orange County housing market is hurting. Consider the six cities tracked by Thomas that have seen growth in market time in past year: Villa Park (+177%); Corona Del Mar (+119%); Laguna Beach (+90%); Seal Beach (+83%); Dove Canyon ( +67% ); and Newport Coast (+54%.)
Also, DataQuick’s yea-end report found that beach homes were O.C.’s slowest sellers in 2008.
Here’s the Thomas data, as of last Thursday, for listings; deals pending; market time in months; vs. 2 weeks ago, a year ago and 2 years ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …
SLICE Listings Deals Time (mos.) 2 wks. ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
•$0-$250k 2,139 531 4.03 4.27 10.58 5.69
•$250k-$500k 3,898 1033 3.77 3.99 10.58 5.69
•$500k-$750k 2,115 382 5.54 5.81 14.55 5.25
•$750k-$1m 1,135 128 8.87 9.48 10.89 6.37
•$1m-$1.5m 876 49 17.88 17.42 16.99 7.77
•$1.5m-$2m 563 23 24.48 21.56 16.39 8.85
•$2m-4m 604 14 43.14 39.40 21.97 13.64
•$4m+ 350 3 116.67 113.00 79.33 31.14
All O.C. 11,560 2,146 5.39 5.62 12.51 6.16
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