Math, i think fleck used to run his own hedge fund which played certain stocks short, purchased gold, etc.
note to folks who don't pay attention - lots of bubble hedge funds NO LONGER EXIST. fleck is still playing and doing quite well.
you can do the math... who was smarter... the bubble heads who made tons on the bubble and are now bust... or fleck who made money in alternate ways and is still solvent and, perhaps, more wealthy than ever?
so, why guys like octavian or brinker try to ridicule the smart, right and solvent guys like fleck just stuns me - how could people's paradigm be so broken?
i don't particular "follow" fleckenstein or anyone else. i listen to ideas and evaluate them based on my understanding of how things work.
i have some ryaux, but i've never mentioned it. my position is only a third position and i don't like it so much right now. not enough to sell, but i wouldn't add unless the s&p starts running into the oncoming train.
i think you mean my position in TBT - double the inverse of the 20 bond. it was recommended to me as a vehicle to play for a bond collapse (higher rates), which i think happens as we are in a bond bubble right now, imho. i don't know if fleck recommended it or not.
i locked in a 30% gain in about a month on my second third purchase. i still have my first third position in it for the long haul.
my prediction is that the government monetizes the debt - and that means LOTS OF CASH WILL BE PRINTED FROM FIAT. TRILLIONS OF IT.
you can reach whatever conclusion you will about cash figuratively falling from helicopters... but i conclude it leads to the devaluation of the dollar, a loss of confidence in financial systems and *much* higher interest rates.
i also believe this to be entirely self evident - along the lines of 2+2=4. it isn't like the government will tax us to pay off the interest and pay down the $30 trillion in debt (that's how much it would be if they had to follow GAAP rules).
so they'll devalue the dollar to devalue the debt - and they won't tell you they are doing this so you'll have to figure it out yourself.
ps - my january went fantastic for my account - even though the s&p and dow had their worst january on record.
take a look at the charts of TBT, NGD, CEF to get an idea how good things went for me... i also own COSWF as a fuel play, but i only have a first third and am waiting to put on a second third in the $13-14 range. COSWF should do great, but it might take a little while to get started. |
