"But, P1 contains some small cap exposure as well as some international exposure. In other words, things other than the SP500, which is, of course, mostly large cap growth --although it seems every day it is converting to mid-cap value -lol-"
I used that S&P 500 fund as a benchmark because it's the one for which I have total return data going back twenty years (from Brinker's Web site). Its performance is close to that of the S&P 500, which is the standard benchmark for mutual funds. Since Brinker's portfolio is composed of mutual funds, it seems like an appropriate benchmark.
"My point, and my question to you, is, how much of the gain from P1 is from timing, and how much of it is from simple diversification into other things than the SP500?"
In March 2008, Hulbert did an analysis which separated Brinker's fund selection from his timing (quoted in the other thread). That showed that Brinker's fund selection was a drag on performance. (Unfortunately, I don't know the time frame.)
"Brinker’s fund selections on average have lagged the market. The HFD reports an 11.5% annualized gain for his 'Aggressive' portfolio, which is 0.9 percentage points per year less than what this portfolio would have made if each of its funds were invested in the DJ Wilshire 5000 during the times they were owned." |
