The devil is always in the details and I think it is actually worth looking at the source rather than 3rd party interpretations.
cbo.gov
Assuming enactment in mid-February, CBO estimates that H.R. 1, as amended, would
increase outlays by $132 billion during the remaining several months of fiscal year 2009,
by $242 billion in fiscal year 2010 (which begins on October 1), by $145 billion in 2011,
and by a total of $632 billion over the 2009-2019 period. That spending includes outlays
from discretionary appropriations in Division A and direct spending resulting from
Division B.
In addition, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting the
provisions in Division B would reduce revenues by $101 billion in fiscal year 2009, by
$219 billion in fiscal year 2010, and by a net amount of $253 billion over the 2009-2019
period. Approximately $96 billion of the estimated revenue change is attributable to the
proposed tax credit for workers and $70 billion to the proposed changes in the AMT.
Combining the spending and revenue effects summarized above, CBO estimates that
enacting the Inouye-Baucus substitute for H.R. 1 would increase federal budget deficits
by $233 billion over the remaining months of fiscal year 2009, by $461 billion in 2010,
by $142 billion in 2011, and by $884 billion over the 2009-2019 period.
All kinds of interesting ways to look at these numbers, but here are two highlights.
- The proportion of spending that will hit in 2009-10 is 59%. Not particularly surprisingly....the projects that actually have long-term value also happen to take a long time.
- The proportion of the tax cuts that will hit in 2009-10 is 126%! I believe that the reason for this is some of the corporate tax changes simply cut taxes in the early years while raising them in the out years.
Slacker |
