Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (7070)	10/24/1997 10:21:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Latif, with all due respect, the problem we face is not if Hong Kong goes up or down. In Oct 87 and any other sharp drop we have a reflex rally in same market/stock. The problem that we face as I mentioned before is a fundamental change in the economic enviroment which will ultimately his the stock markets. This fundamental issue is over-capacity almost in every product line and the failure of the real big populus countries to chach up with the standard of living (e.g China and it's SE Asia neighbors and India/Bangaladesh)all in all around 3 billion people who have same intelectual capabilities as ours but ar paid a fraction of our compensation. GDP/capita in the $160 to $2000 range versus $22,000 (I think) in the US. The net result is that it will take a while for income parity and until then I expect market turmoil, substantial pressure on corporate profits and low inflation, due the globalization of the REAL Markets. Net result lower stock prices, big demand of credit, collapse of banks who lended freely etc. We already are seing the some indications. Happy trading Haim

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