I agree it seems overly negative. The program seems less risky with the clean Qtc data in hand. But had they partnered at this point and then failed in P2b, presumably some of that cost would be shared by the partner (via some combination of actually paying for some of the trial and the non-refundable upfront payment). Also they'll have burned through some cash, which weakens the negotiating position a little (won't be an issue unless the data are little disappointing). So in those ways, the risk is indeed higher. There will be a delay if they are not even discussing until the P2B results are in. If they had a partner before then, they'd be able to form their committees & discuss preliminary regulatory strategies before the trial was over, and hit the ground running. I think this will cost them a few months, yes. But, of course, the payoff will be better terms, assuming the the data come out as it did in the 2a. So, yeah, halving the price target seems harsh.
That said, I stick with my original thought, which is it's dead money for a few months. I might be forgetting some other milestone, but this is obviously the main driver. Could be a very good summer buy, though. I think we'll see at least one market induced buying opportunity by then. JMHO.
Cheers, Tuck |
