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Biotech / Medical : InterMune (nasdaq)ITMN
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To: kenhott who wrote (470)2/4/2009 9:42:08 AM
From: kenhott   of 508
 
<reply> Last reply, before Tom throws a russian novel at me.

Why do I think the chance is not much better than 50/50 on the next trial when they have one at <.001? Maybe I can put it this way. If we play a strange version of rock, paper, scissors... you can only use rock and I can only use paper or scissors. So you use rock and if I use scissors, because rock beats the crap out of scissors, you get p<.001. But if you use rock and I use paper, my paper wraps your rock and you get nothing. So what is your chance of a successful trial? The drug of rock is useful but in an uncertain population. So if the patient set is mostly scissors, success. But if the patient set is mostly paper, then the trial will bomb. Something like 50/50.

And of course you are right that two agencies = two chances. I would just say to not think about them together for trading because the FDA will likely come first and they are the more difficult of the two. If I were ITMN, I would file for the EMEA first. But would they think of that?
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