re: ["how bout' some more specific trading thoughts?! "]
I haven't changed much lately...
-- Long gold.
-- Long gold stocks (NEM GG AEM KGC AUY MFN) 5/6 largest gold positions,
SLW largest Silver stock position).
-- Long Yen (via FXY).I also use FXY to park cash, but watch it closely.
-- Cash, varies on trading positions, I like to keep at least
20-25% in this environment for both opportunity, and safety.
And it's not unusual to be as high as 50%+ when taking profits
into a rally.
-- Short the DOW/S&P (via SH/DOG) mainly as a hedge to current
long position in gold stocks at this sub 8000 level in the
DOW and low 830ish S&P level.
But, I'm waiting to go short on much larger trade (via 2X SDS/DXD)
on any "significant" rally on the bailout/stimulus approval.
And I've got 3,4 non-PM stocks that I actively trade both
long & short.
I closed out my TBT position because I thought the Fed would
announce that they were actively buying long dated Treasuries.
But, they didn't reaffirm, which I think may be a trap, as I
think buying long dated Treasuries will be a main part of their
policy, and stimulus & bailout package.
It's a win-win for the Banksters...
They will print money to buy long dated Treasuries because...
-- they have to!
-- it keeps mortgage rates down/stimulates home sales & refi's.
-- competitively devalues the Dollar/helps US exporters/jobs.
There can be no question that given the coming supply of
Treasuries, that the U.S. Treasury will have to print money
to buy them.
And they can't afford for long rates to rise, because it
will kill any recovery in the housing market and cap consumer
spending.
The US not only wants, it needs a weaker dollar to stimulate
US exports and save US jobs.
Geithner has already re-opened the China currency manipulation
box. Same policy as Paulson/Bernanke... talk a strong dollar,
walk a weak dollar policy.
It just makes too much sense to buy long dated Treasuries for
it not to happen. And given the cover the Dollar has in this
global deleveraging, via being the reserve currency,
it's the perfect time to start doing it... right now.
One day, short Treasuries will be a huge long term trend
trade. But, I don't think it's here and now.
That's my .02 ameri's.
S.O.T.B.
PS: Also long lead + sulfur, charcoal, and saltpeter.
;) |
