Re: 1) SEMI announced the equipment book:bill, which showed three straight monthly declines on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
The devil is in the details:
Yes the semi equipment B2B did go from 1.12 to 1.09 to 1.07 in July, August and September. But remember that's only a ratio. The magnitude of orders and shipments is also an important consideration.
Orders(Book) were for June - Sept : 1.474B, 1.659B, 1.682B, 1.748B.
Shipments(Bill) were: 1.375B, 1.476B, 1.538B, 1.633B.
Now, I may not have a Ph.D in higher mathematics, but I would say that both book and bill have increased sharply in each of the last 3 months.
In fact, the last decrease in Bill was between Jan and Feb of 97; the last decrease in Book was also between Jan and Feb.
As said, the devil is in the details.
This sector is growing much more rapidly than the analysts are willing to accept. IMO, the outlook is considerably brighter than the analysts are willing to publicly state. But even the most obstinate of people can only ignore reality for a finite number of years. - unless, of course they're insane. ;-)
Best wishes to all,
Ian. |
