june 2008 from the EIA Annual Report, with respect to the paragraphs below we can see that the handoff in Washington continues the prescriptive planning from one general to the next. Read this carefully, because its revealing about the intent of gross systemics, aka forecasting. Continuing below this first piece, I've copied an unrelated paragraph adapted as overlay in a predictive sense to the first, as prognostication of relevant probability.
Electricity Demand
Residential and Commercial Sectors Dominate Electricity Demand Growth
Total electricity sales increase by 29 percent in the AEO2008 reference case, from 3,659 billion kilowatthours in 2006 to 4,705 billion in 2030, at an average rate of 1.1 percent per year. The relatively slow growth follows the historical trend, with the growth rate slowing in each succeeding decade. Electricity sales, which are strongly affected by economic growth, increase by 39 percent in the high growthcase, to 5,089 billion kilowatthours in 2030, but by only 18 percent in the low growth case, to 4,319 billion kilowatthours in 2030. In the reference case, the largest increase is in the commercial sector, at 49 percent from 2006 to 2030 (Figure 60), as service industries continue to drive growth. Electricity demand grows by 27 percent in the residential sector and by only 3 percent in the industrial sector. Growth in population and disposable income leads to increased demand for products, services, and floorspace. Population shifts to warmer regions also increase the need for cooling.
Efficiency gains offset growth in electricity demand, as higher energy prices encourage investment in energy-efficient equipment. In both the residential and commercial sectors, continuing efficiency gains in electric heat pumps, air conditioners, refrigerators, lighting (notably LED lighting), cooking appliances, and computer screens slow the growth of electricity demand. The new standards set in EISA2007 for lighting and other appliances (such as boilers, dehumidifiers, dishwashers, and clothes washers) further dampen electricity demand throughout the projection. Slow growth in industrial production, particularly in the energy-intensive industries, limits electricity demand growth in the industrial sector
Pensinger provides this insight, which is easily extrapolated onto the above command plan.
Nein, there is no briefback possible on this; comprehensive planning has relevance only with regard to small component processes. Moreover, attempt at achieving prior consensus could only yield a sniper-countersniper cognitive environment, scuttling the effort. It's inherently bottom-up: initiatives from the bottom at the business-NGO interface. That's the way I see it. It has to grow through use, like a natural language. Haven't we had enough of God's-eye-view systems? Nor is self-organization the result of doing nothing. There are thresholds in meeting the prerequisites. These need to be discovered non-prescriptively. |
