If anybody wonders if the Argentina playbook is at all likely, consider these numbers:
In 2008 calendar year, the US national debt increased 1,470,632,205,393.82
At 3% long term treasury rates, this NEW DEBT will add an ongoing 44 billion per year onto the deficit. At 6%, it will be 88 billion.
At 3% long term treasury rates, the ACCUMULATED DEBT will add 321 billion to the debt. At 6%, it will add 642 billion.
And that's on top of the ongoing gap between taxes and spending, certainly ballooning this year (to 2.0 trillion, I'm guessing).
And who said deficits don't matter?
date public debt intra-gov't holdings total public debt
---------- ------------------- ------------------ --------------------
12/31/2007 5,136,302,727,072.67 4,092,869,932,145.64 9,229,172,659,218.31
12/31/2008 6,369,318,869,476.54 4,330,485,995,135.59 10,699,804,864,612.13
And don't even think about a US Treasury melt down which could bring on 10%+ rates again... |
