Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (43271)	2/7/2009 12:53:27 PM
From: Pam	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95564

Gottfried, if one combines the chart you provided with the chart below (AMAT, KLAC, LRCX), it seems like the chart you provided may be a leading indicator to where the Semiconductor Equipment Companies (SCE) stock prices should bottom out. During the last downturn, SCE stocks bottomed out in Oct 2002 whereas Semiconductor Worldwide Sales bottomed out sometime in Jan 2002 and NA Semiconductor Bookings bottomed out sometime in Fall 2001! I do not know if history will repeat itself, but I sure hope it rhymes with the past ;-) If this thesis is on track, SCE stocks still have a ways to go on the downside! But then this would be too obvious, right? Any thoughts? Corollary: During the last boom, SCE peaked in Spring of 2000, and Semiconductor Worldwide Sales and NA Semiconductor Bookings peaked early Fall 2000, about 6 months later!

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