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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (43273)	2/8/2009 9:56:17 PM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) of 95567

Pam, I have a chart of AMAT with SEMI bookings [below]. It shows price anticipates SEMI bookings by a few months. Note how in early 2001 price was wrong [expecting a V bottom in SEMI bookings]. Since SEMI bookings bottoms are U-shaped now, price will probably give us more than one chance to buy low. AMAT price with SIA sales is also shown. Here the relationship is not so clear. Well, in that case the question is whether Nov '08 lows reflect the low prices this downturn and if we will revisit them in the coming months? If we have a U-shaped bottom for SEMI bookings, we should be revisiting those lows again in the coming weeks/months, at the very least! The Black Swan: Yes, heard a lot about this one on Bloomberg radio. Hope to read it as soon as I am finished reading the one I am reading right now. So what he is saying (his analogy) is that the market knows when it is going to bottom out but it will takes us all by surprise when it happens!

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