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Biotech / Medical : Genentech (NYSE:DNA) formerly known as (NYSE:GNE)

DNA 8.590

-3.9%

3:11 PM EST

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To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (229)	2/10/2009 1:30:50 AM
From: tuck	of 250

OK, since you persist. I'll even upfront say I voted for d). My version of the some other outcome is that Roche fails in the tender offer and comes with a higher price. The situation, is of course, somewhat different than their run at Ventana, but I think this lowball tender offer is a negotiating tactic that will fail at its overt purpose of buying DNA for $86.50. Sure there's risk with the upcoming Avastin data. But it's two sided: bad data equals low bid; but if Roche diddles around till after its release and it comes out well then they'll end up giving up or paying much more -- either way the stock price will be better. I think Roche will blink, and fairly soon -- as opposed to the Ventana situation that dragged on for months because there wasn't this binary trial risk. It may never be business as usual though. This stuff tends to screw up relations for some time. I'm holding my shares in part because I've written the LEAPs against them, and the transaction cost of unwinding it for the $86.50 is not very tolerable, considering my take on DNA's position. Cheers, Tuck

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