Derek,
I don't think there's any -serious- talk of a worldwide recession at all.
Indeed, AMAT, while not the sole target of this collapse, seems to be about the biggest. Which seems really odd.
Anybody know why NVLS et al are holding up -relatively- well, while AMAT is utterly hammered? Does NVLS have a lot less at stake in Asia?
One would guess, based on the 40% or so devaluation, that the end was in sight for the world of semiconductors. Instead, it's as though absolutely everyone, no exceptions, agrees that the future for AMAT is stellar, but they're all wondering if they can time the market well enough to squeeze out some profits in the meantime.
It seems to me this is the market taking a very short-term view -- a foolishly short-term view, except wrt those who are able to time or manipulate the market successfully.
But maybe I'm missing something, and some not-widely-known info will reveal that AMAT is truly in serious strategic trouble, with medium and long term profits in some doubt?
--John |
