I find these Gilder comments interesting..
What Microsoft needs to do, Gilder says, is to create "a platform-independent
Java component system working across the network and breaking away from
the bloatwear it is currently selling."
Will Microsoft do that? Gilder is confident that Gates "will figure out how to
deal with this present crisis in a positive way." He says that Microsoft is at "an
unfortunate point in its history when it will have to change more drastically than
those at the helm want." It's hard for those in charge to see a need to change,
he says, because the model has been very successful. But Gilder predicts that
Microsoft's growth rate will "fall dramatically over the next several years, and
what seemed unstoppable will be more mortal than most people imagine."
"I think," says Gilder, "that Gates will turn to Java to save Microsoft, and I
think his contribution will be very valuable, but if he tries to wage a tactical war
over Java and to prevent Sun from benefiting from Java, it's unseemly,
perverse and a mistake that he will regret. He didn't invent this technology, and
he has to deal with the companies that did invent it. And he can live with that."
MSFT's growth rate will fall dramatically. I've been thinking about Windows 98 and trying to understand how it will be a big seller. For millions of people (certainly 3.1 users should/will upgrade?) I see no compelling reason to upgrade. People who are buying systems now already get the Fat32 update. IE4 will be integral part of the OS, maybe. Who cares? Win98 is overhyped and some of the stuff like Fat32 should be provided to existing users as fix pack! Hmmm, perhaps Gilder is on to something in regards to less growth. How will this impact shareholders? Does anyone know what it will cost to upgrade '95 to '98?
Derek |
