CJ and all, let me explain why I don't believe we're facing another Great Depression.
First of all, we as Americans are much more well-educated and much more enterprising than the Americans who lived between WWI and WWII. Hence the economy back then was much more focused on manufacturing than today where the economy is more service-oriented.
Secondly, we now live in a global economy with huge advances in communication and cultural interaction. The economy of today is MUCH more flexible than the economy of the early 20th century. Opportunities abound even in today's slowdown, and although lending is much tighter than it was just a few years ago, the capital is still there for enterprising minds to access.
And third, standards of living have risen so much that we're now incredibly spoiled. Hence most of us really don't know how far we'd have to fall before we actually get to another depression. Do we REALLY need two cars per household? How about one cell phone per family member? Cell phone rates haven't fallen any, suggesting that people still love their cell phones and can still afford them. High-definition TVs are still flying off the shelves at Costco, Best Buy, etc., though at a slower rate than before.
Anyway, that's all from my limited perspective. I'm no expert, and I realize I could be in the minority when it comes to the economic experts. Plus I'm no virgin at being wrong. However, the so-called "experts" failed to see this crisis coming before it was too late, so why should I trust the doomsayers when it seems to me that they tend to confuse hindsight with foresight?
In conclusion, I have always been an optimist, but my optimism lies in the free market where the participants are free to take ideas and turn them into business successes. Or work for those who do just that. Sure, government regulation has its place, especially to prevent abuses of the system, but the day we start believing that government can "create" the jobs and "create" prosperity is the day we've stopped believing in the enterprising spirit of America.
Tenchusatsu |
