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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group
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To: Juniper who wrote (1213)10/24/1997 2:53:00 PM
From: David Aegis  Read Replies (1) of 2946
 
Juniper, thanks for the excellent analysis of SVGI viv-a-vis the rest of the industry. While I think the entire group is oversold and that the industry recovery is still intact, SVGI in particular remains well positioned. I would add the following comments made on the CYMI conference call:

..End user demand for DUV is strong. Semiconducter manufacturers continue to ask DUV equipment makers for more tools. The equip. makers may not be able to meet this demand.

Bob Akins, CYMI's CEO, also reported comments from an unnamed CYMI customer (and DUV supplier...SVGI? ASMLF??) as follows:

..DUV demand for 1998 should be in the area of 700 machines. The industry would probably not be able to meet that demand. Semiconducter manufacturers are pulling in orders of .25 micron machines to get a leg up on 64 mb DRAMs. The product life cycle for 64 mb is expected to be shorter than 16 mb, and first mover advantage is being viewed as important in moving down the learning curve.

IMHO, the CYMI conference call confirms comments made on other conference calls such as KLA/Tencor. The bear market story about a DRAM driven double dip downturn is not supported by the available news. The market is going to do what it will do in the short term. I am looking for November of '97 to be a repeat of November '96.

--David
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