Wow, talk about controversial.
Sorry, but this totally smacks of desperation and loss in belief that value investing works (a mood that overall is starting to permeate this thread, but that's another discussion).
You are now arguing short side like the longs argued in the Internet bubble:
- BRK is a short because it is relatively expensive compared to other companies. (and MSFT was a long since it was relatively cheap compared to AMZN... ).
- BRK is is a short even though it is trading at 5 year lows (and AMZN was a long even it was trading at 5 year highs).
- BRK is a short even though it is the only (?) company still with AAA ratings, practically no debt, no exposure to toxic anything, best of breed businesses, still tons of cash, Buffett at the helm, sweetheart debt deals from top companies, and so on and so on.
And sure the reason why it will fall is macroeconomic. Which is something that everyone now is an expert in. Pleaaaaaase. I hear another macro comment on this thread, I am going to puke.
Nobody knows macro future. Nobody. Not Roubini, not Soros, not Rogers, not Buffett, not Paul Senior. At least Buffett does not pretend to know it, while everyone else in this list does.
There is only one reason to short BRK - if you believe that Buffett will die before the crisis is over. In this case, yeah, you are right, it would fall to $2000 or perhaps even lower.
Now, you may be right that BRK is not a good long, but this does not automatically make it a short. I'll get back to you regarding whether it is a good long in my opinion, but this make take some time. ;) |
