There's nothing to calm down about. I can sign my name under every sentence I wrote in the previous post. I see no point in pointless macro discussions. I can only commiserate "value investors" who jump on shorting bandwagon after stocks have crashed, using relative and macro arguments. Go ahead, short. I'll say a very simple thing: if you really invest like that, you should be in a 50% index fund + 50% bonds like Graham advised and not trying to be an active investor. Market timing and trying to get too late on a trend will get you nowhere. Of course, you won't listen to me, but I don't give a hoot about that.
Value investing does not depend on macro picture. If it did, there would be no point to use it. You could just buy momentum (or growth) when economy is doing great and get out of the market (or short) when economy is turning bad. Graham and Buffett are getting hoarse repeating: "You cannot know when the bottom is, you cannot know what's gonna happen in a year, you cannot predict economy. Companies are always cheapest when things look bad and expensive when things look good". Well, very few listened to them for over 50 years, very few people will listen now. So, yeah, short, trend chase, flip-flop on macro events, trade, do whatever you like. Just don't call it value investing. |
