Hi SS, been a LONG time since biotech, although I still have a private deal from those dayz I'm hoping works out someday. :(( That was a good run in those dayz although nothing like we're in the middle of now... I still think Gold is the last great trade of my lifetime.... and it's only partway thru. As to Well Fargo I have a couple of comments:
1.) It's the best damn run bank in the country.
2.) #1 is probably a good part because of Warrren Buffets influence and ownership... he always HATED deriviatives, clearly for good reason as it turns out although in those dayz he was thought of as an olde poop no doubt.
3.) Mr. Market ALWAYS throws babies out with bathwater... always.
4.) Is WellsF a baby or just a piece of shit? I have no clue unfortunately, I wish I could help you out there with real information about their derivative counterparty risk and the rest of it. BUT, if I were to buy any bank based on my limited knowlege, this would be it.
5.) Based on my limited knowlege above... let's at LEAST try an interpret your info for you:
<Most of the volume is less than the open interest, with the exception of the March 17 puts, where 20,000 were bought against open interest of roughly 12,000. >
OK, someone bought the piss out of deep in the money near term poooots... ie. they essentially shorted stock!! IMHO, normally shorts are a LOT smarter than longs NEAR TERM. That's all said with the knowledge that I am no longer on the exchanges and don't know what the hell the buyers of those pooots were thinking, like the olden dayz when I'd occasionally hear some stuff. Clearly, shorts think they know something BEFORE MARCH!!! Area earnings due??? etc.
<By midafternoon more than 460,000 contracts had changed hands, more than twice the 20-day average volume, with puts outpacing calls by 4 to 1. The action came in large blocks, with 6 of the 10 ten largest trades in WFC puts, according to OptionMonster's tracking systems.>>
The first quote tells me more than second. This second quote sounds bearish and probably is (for a day or 2) but could be contrued as capitulation... the first quote (big buyer of deep in the money pooots) sounds like a freaking insider trader, someone who knows there is A LOT of stock for sale so doesn't want to try and front run it (short in front of the seller) so he bought pooots and will buy stock later... presumably when the guy(s) puke.
OK, that's not very helpful, but that's all I see. Personally, as someone who has been bullish on gold bearish on economy and $US for almost 10 years, I'm not about to try and make a buck on the short side in the best run bank in the country.... seems like essentially part of the overall puke/capitualtion in the banks. Further I'd say that since the US government shoud essentially own FRE, FNM, JPM-Chase (for sure) and probably 1/2 a dozen others I CANT IMAGINE that Well Fargo isn't the freakin BELL OF THE BALL... If I wasn't so bullish on gold and bearish on the rest of the S&P I'd be piling in. As it is, I'm glad you pointed it out, and I think i will buy some over the next week or at least in the next broad market puke. IMHO action like you pointed out is, or is the precursor to a "cresendo" of selling... maybe not the long term bottom for Wells, but a puke none the less. Let's see what happens tomorrow thru monday and look to buy it.
The pro's all see what you saw, there's no mony on the downside based on that except for them IMHO.
thanks again.
DAK |
