Of course those gross in situ figures won't all be recoverable, and they'll need hundreds of millions capex to begin production, but still ... you don't need to raise that capex until oil comes back to where production would pay, which it will sooner or later, meantime stp/aos are cashed up well and not about to go under ... and let's say they only recover twenty per cent of gross in situ [and never find more on the unexplored portions of their lands], well you still get 100bbls for every dollar you put out for market cap today ... penny a freaking barrel, from cluing into that in december it's fascinated me ever since ... using gross in situ figures, .18stp and .12aos, it's a fifth of a penny per barrel, lol
That poster Commander Cricket prefers npe.v to stp/aos, said so on Big Dog's thread ... reason being, they'll be producing on their pilot project before the others, they've started steaming already ... well my logic works the other way on the same facts, very much prefer not to produce while the price is still down, rather get lined up to produce when oil is on the upswing ... cash flow doesn't do you much good if it's negative
Which is the classic question, is it better to go with a producer or a developer ... answer is, it all depends, on quite a number of factors, i tend to lean to developers because they're simpler, cleaner, not going under near as fast, plus they're cheaper, as they get their market values whacked much harder in downturns |
