Coulda thrown darts at the semi-equipment sector and then shorted, and made out like a bandit - didn't even have to have a crystal ball - coulda done it at today's open. Look at ASYT as an example. Opened at 35, dropped as low as 26 at one point.
Too bad smarty-chips couldn't pick a stock like that to short!
A HUGE portion of the sector's revenues (apx 2/3) come from the Pacific region. These orders will likely be cut back due to higher cost of funds.
But, then again, he wants to wait for his profits - 25% (oops, I mean 50% - forgot he's 200% short) in a couple of hours would not be enough of a challenge for him!
I'm sure we'll be hearing from Chippie at 30, and 40, and 50, saying that he doesn't intend to day-trade this stock, and is still confident that it will drop.
BTW, I don't see this thread as outrageously bullish at all - I haven't seen a near-term estimate of more than 30 from anyone. Have heard some "35 by the end of the year". Seems to me that his prediction of 16 within 30 days is more outrageous than any of the bullish statements we've heard.
And, keep in mind that *I* was calling for 18 up until earnings. I know that I was alone in calling for that, though. But I am smart enough to know that the earnings - along with the subsequent price action - changed the picture entirely and threw the old TA out the window. I also didn't feel it was safe at all to short, particularly going into earnings.
My notion was that it had broken the 50ma, and was heading toward the 200ma. I saw the next real support at 18. Many tech stocks that had broken their 50ma DID fall to their 200ma, so it was logical to expect other stocks in the group to do the same thing. But a combination of a good earnings report and a change in sentiment toward tech stocks saved CREAF from that fate. If earnings had been flat and the market had continued to punish even out-performance of estimates, we may well have been at 18 by now.
But that scene did not play out, and I, for one, was not willing to be left in the back of the theatre, sitting alone (well, suppose I would have had Chipper for company) waiting for the scene that they took out of the play. I went long at 21 on the brink of earnings, (based on market sentiment at the time - I felt that CREAF would not be punished if they out-performed only slightly) sold at 26 1/8, and can't say I'm unhappy about that at all.
But don't take my willingness to take a profit (my word, please - in the middle of market crashes around the world!) as an indication that shorting this stock would be at all prudent. |
